April 2013 Forecast

Hello everyone!
     
     I hope everyone had a happy Easter holiday weekend! Earlier on Sunday, I took the time to put together the nest month's forecast and now have it ready for all to see. It seems April 2013 will be yet another potentially active month for natural disasters. March brought some events here and there but nothing of great magnitude thankfully. April features two "high-risk" time frames, yet a lower amount of risk periods than seen in both March and February. What might this mean? It could be that April brings a lower number of events, but one that may be more significant that what we've seen this year so far. Based on what I can tell, this month's matters will be Severe Weather, Tornadoes and even one Big Earthquake. Here's what the month of April 2013 looks like:

April 3-7:

     (Several Possible Outcomes) Likely Scenario: A Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts, around the Magnitude 7.5+ range, is a real possibility during this time especially on April 3 and even more on April 6-7. Second Likely Scenario: Major Severe Weather/Tornado Event is also possible during this time-frame with potentially severe impacts. This time, this scenario is a higher possibility in the Indian Subcontinent in and around Bangladesh. Third Possible Scenario: A Significant Flooding Disaster could occur during these days as well. Fourth Possible Scenario: Tropical Cyclone may form and strike land in the South Pacific region. Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia, Indonesia. Watch the Indian Subcontinent, primarily India and Bangladesh, for potential severe weather, floods and tornadoes. Watch Southeast Asia for potentially severe floods during this time as well. Last but not least, watch the South Pacific, especially in and around the north waters of Australia, for possible cyclone activity. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 30 percent, with the risk for the disaster being severe at 20 percent.

April 14-18:

     Most Likely Scenario: Severe Weather/ Tornado Event could strike during this time, possibly causing significant impacts. Second Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake could strike during the period, especially on April 14-15 and April 18, likely causing significant impacts. The quake may surpass Magnitude 7.0 if it were to occur. Other Possible Scenarios: Tropical Cyclone forms and affects the south Pacific, mainly Australia. Other types of Severe Weather, including Floods cannot be ruled out during this time either in other parts of the world. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather/ Tornadoes: Keep close watch on both the Indian Subcontinent, primarily Bangladesh and India, and the South/Central U.S. ahead of any major cold fronts by then. Watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then as well. For the Earthquake: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and Eastern Europe, SE Asia. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this period is 25 percent with a 15 percent chance that the disaster becomes severe.

April 20:

     Possible Scenario: Earthquake, possibly around the Magnitude 6.0-6.5 range, strikes on this day probably leaving moderate impacts. A Landslide is also possible, especially in mountainous areas having heavy rains, as a second alternate sudden event. Second Possible Scenario: Severe Weather and Tornadoes are also possible on this day, and might be a continuation of the previous risk period's severe weather event (April 14-18). Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia. watch the Indian Subcontinent, as well as the South/Central U.S. for possible severe weather and tornadoes. Last but not least, watch mountainous areas for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 10 percent.

April 23-27:

     Most Likely Scenario: A Major Severe Weather/Tornado Event could occur during this period, likely resulting in serious impacts. Second Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake could hit during this time as well, possibly surpassing Magnitude 7.0 and causing severe impacts. This possible EQ disaster is likeliest to occur on April 26-27, and April 23-24 to a lesser extent. Third Possible Scenario: Tropical Cyclone may form and bring significant impacts to the South Pacific region, esp. Australia. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and northeast Europe to Alaska, SE Asia. For the Severe Weather/ Tornadoes: Watch closely both the Southern and Central U.S. and the Indian Subcontinent for potentially dangerous severe weather during this time. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 30 percent and the chance that the event becomes severe is 20 percent.

April 30:

     (Continues into May 1) Possible Scenario: Severe Weather/ Tornado Event strikes on this date and into May 1st, possibly bringing moderate-to-significant impacts. Second Possible Scenario: A Strong Earthquake, with possibly moderate impacts, strikes on this date and has a strength or impacts similar to the Magnitude 6.5 to 7.0 range. Landslides cannot be ruled out on this date as well, especially near areas receiving heavy rains near mountains. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch places such as South and North America's western coasts, Africa's northern and eastern sector, and eastern Europe, SE Asia. For the Severe Weather: Watch the South/Central portion of the U.S. and India/Bangladesh for possible severe weather and strong tornadoes then. Also, monitor regions with mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster then is 15 percent.

The Month at a Glance:

      As you can tell, this month has 5 risk periods of which three are pretty action-packed. April looks about Average for the number of possible natural disasters we'll see around the world, BUT it has an overall greater risk for bringing a Major Natural Disaster compared to the previous months of 2013. This potential disaster will likely be either a Major Severe Weather/ Tornado Event, or a Severe Earthquake. Expect 1 to 2 Natural Disasters this month worldwide, with 1 of these being significant to severe in nature.

     I wish everyone a safe and good month of April, no matter what storms and quakes it may bring. That's my take on April '13.

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UPDATE #1 (April 1, '13)

FLOODING RAINS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN U.S. APRIL 3-5.

Accuweather.com is warning of the potential for heavy rains to spread from Texas eastward to the Carolinas in the period concerning late Tuesday into Friday. While there rains will most likely prove beneficial as they shall help ease drought conditions, they will also possibly lead to flooding. With this occurring during such a strong risk period, there is the possibility for severe flooding events throughout the region beginning Wednesday the 3rd into Friday. If you live in the Southern U.S., keep close watch on your weather stations should your weather turn inclement. If you see a water-covered roadway...DO NOT attempt to cross it, seek alternate routes, no matter how long they may be.


See full story from accuweather below:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/south-to-get-needed-rain-unwan/9313165

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UPDATE #2 (April 6, '13)


MAJOR EARTHQUAKE STRIKES INDONESIA TODAY, MAGNITUDE 7.2.


A pretty powerful quake has just hit a rural section of Indonesia in the Papua New Guinea area. It was about 75km deep and probably not very impactful due to its location, according to the USGS. Nonetheless, this region bears watching as I'm a bit concerned this could be a FORESHOCK befoe a larger one later today or tomorrow. All eyes on Indonesia and other major quake risk areas. 


This calls for an EARTHQUAKE WATCH from APRIL 6 to APRIL 7.

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UPDATE #3 (Apr. 14th, 2013)

SEVERE WEATHER/ TORNADO WATCH, APRIL 16th - 18th 2013,  SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.

Weather forecast models are beginning to show hints of a larger and perhaps more violent Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak for April 16 - 18, with the time span between April 17 and April 18 looking the most significant. The main area to watch appears to be the South-Central portion of the U.S. from Eastern Texas east towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. Caution during this time period is strongly advised, stay tuned to your local weather stations if you live in this region.

See Link Below, Valid for April 17-18, for Shaded Risk region. t:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midweek-severe-weather-threat/10272748

More information on this specific evolving Weather Situation can be read about in the following Meteorology forum, Storm2K:


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114885


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The Latest: (April 16th, nighttime)

Powerful Earthquake struck Iran today, magnitude 7.8. Several fatalities are a real possibility, likely in the dozens to low 100's and many homes may have been damaged. Keep an eye on this region!

SEVERE WEATHER/ TORNADO WATCH STILL UP FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. 4/17-4/18.

  All areas along eastern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastwards through states including Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois should keep an eye to the sky and an ear on their local weather stations tomorrow through Thursday. I have a feeling this could be a pretty big outbreak and perhaps the first really bad twister event of the month and one of the year's most significant. As some meteorologists are saying, this could be "one of the worst outbreaks of the year".

Stay tuned to your local weather stations if you are in this area!

See the link below to view the risk areas:


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midweek-severe-weather-threat/10272748


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APRIL 18th UPDATE

Tornado Watch expanding Northeast from the area affected yesterday...

PDS TORNADO WATCH 4/18...FOR:
EASTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN


This appears to be a Particularly Dangerous Situation. Stay tuned, this should occur during the day today!

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DISASTER in the news:

  Strong Magnitude 6.6 ravaged the Sichuan region of China on Saturday, April 20, killing nearly 200 people as the quake sheared off mountainsides and caused major landslides and severe damage to several buildings. Last that I heard, there were 11,000 injured. This has been the worst natural disaster of the year thus far. The area needs continued monitoring for powerful aftershocks.