April 2013 Forecast

Hello everyone!
     
     I hope everyone had a happy Easter holiday weekend! Earlier on Sunday, I took the time to put together the nest month's forecast and now have it ready for all to see. It seems April 2013 will be yet another potentially active month for natural disasters. March brought some events here and there but nothing of great magnitude thankfully. April features two "high-risk" time frames, yet a lower amount of risk periods than seen in both March and February. What might this mean? It could be that April brings a lower number of events, but one that may be more significant that what we've seen this year so far. Based on what I can tell, this month's matters will be Severe Weather, Tornadoes and even one Big Earthquake. Here's what the month of April 2013 looks like:

April 3-7:

     (Several Possible Outcomes) Likely Scenario: A Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts, around the Magnitude 7.5+ range, is a real possibility during this time especially on April 3 and even more on April 6-7. Second Likely Scenario: Major Severe Weather/Tornado Event is also possible during this time-frame with potentially severe impacts. This time, this scenario is a higher possibility in the Indian Subcontinent in and around Bangladesh. Third Possible Scenario: A Significant Flooding Disaster could occur during these days as well. Fourth Possible Scenario: Tropical Cyclone may form and strike land in the South Pacific region. Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia, Indonesia. Watch the Indian Subcontinent, primarily India and Bangladesh, for potential severe weather, floods and tornadoes. Watch Southeast Asia for potentially severe floods during this time as well. Last but not least, watch the South Pacific, especially in and around the north waters of Australia, for possible cyclone activity. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 30 percent, with the risk for the disaster being severe at 20 percent.

April 14-18:

     Most Likely Scenario: Severe Weather/ Tornado Event could strike during this time, possibly causing significant impacts. Second Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake could strike during the period, especially on April 14-15 and April 18, likely causing significant impacts. The quake may surpass Magnitude 7.0 if it were to occur. Other Possible Scenarios: Tropical Cyclone forms and affects the south Pacific, mainly Australia. Other types of Severe Weather, including Floods cannot be ruled out during this time either in other parts of the world. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather/ Tornadoes: Keep close watch on both the Indian Subcontinent, primarily Bangladesh and India, and the South/Central U.S. ahead of any major cold fronts by then. Watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then as well. For the Earthquake: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and Eastern Europe, SE Asia. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this period is 25 percent with a 15 percent chance that the disaster becomes severe.

April 20:

     Possible Scenario: Earthquake, possibly around the Magnitude 6.0-6.5 range, strikes on this day probably leaving moderate impacts. A Landslide is also possible, especially in mountainous areas having heavy rains, as a second alternate sudden event. Second Possible Scenario: Severe Weather and Tornadoes are also possible on this day, and might be a continuation of the previous risk period's severe weather event (April 14-18). Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia. watch the Indian Subcontinent, as well as the South/Central U.S. for possible severe weather and tornadoes. Last but not least, watch mountainous areas for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 10 percent.

April 23-27:

     Most Likely Scenario: A Major Severe Weather/Tornado Event could occur during this period, likely resulting in serious impacts. Second Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake could hit during this time as well, possibly surpassing Magnitude 7.0 and causing severe impacts. This possible EQ disaster is likeliest to occur on April 26-27, and April 23-24 to a lesser extent. Third Possible Scenario: Tropical Cyclone may form and bring significant impacts to the South Pacific region, esp. Australia. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and northeast Europe to Alaska, SE Asia. For the Severe Weather/ Tornadoes: Watch closely both the Southern and Central U.S. and the Indian Subcontinent for potentially dangerous severe weather during this time. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 30 percent and the chance that the event becomes severe is 20 percent.

April 30:

     (Continues into May 1) Possible Scenario: Severe Weather/ Tornado Event strikes on this date and into May 1st, possibly bringing moderate-to-significant impacts. Second Possible Scenario: A Strong Earthquake, with possibly moderate impacts, strikes on this date and has a strength or impacts similar to the Magnitude 6.5 to 7.0 range. Landslides cannot be ruled out on this date as well, especially near areas receiving heavy rains near mountains. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch places such as South and North America's western coasts, Africa's northern and eastern sector, and eastern Europe, SE Asia. For the Severe Weather: Watch the South/Central portion of the U.S. and India/Bangladesh for possible severe weather and strong tornadoes then. Also, monitor regions with mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster then is 15 percent.

The Month at a Glance:

      As you can tell, this month has 5 risk periods of which three are pretty action-packed. April looks about Average for the number of possible natural disasters we'll see around the world, BUT it has an overall greater risk for bringing a Major Natural Disaster compared to the previous months of 2013. This potential disaster will likely be either a Major Severe Weather/ Tornado Event, or a Severe Earthquake. Expect 1 to 2 Natural Disasters this month worldwide, with 1 of these being significant to severe in nature.

     I wish everyone a safe and good month of April, no matter what storms and quakes it may bring. That's my take on April '13.

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UPDATE #1 (April 1, '13)

FLOODING RAINS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN U.S. APRIL 3-5.

Accuweather.com is warning of the potential for heavy rains to spread from Texas eastward to the Carolinas in the period concerning late Tuesday into Friday. While there rains will most likely prove beneficial as they shall help ease drought conditions, they will also possibly lead to flooding. With this occurring during such a strong risk period, there is the possibility for severe flooding events throughout the region beginning Wednesday the 3rd into Friday. If you live in the Southern U.S., keep close watch on your weather stations should your weather turn inclement. If you see a water-covered roadway...DO NOT attempt to cross it, seek alternate routes, no matter how long they may be.


See full story from accuweather below:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/south-to-get-needed-rain-unwan/9313165

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UPDATE #2 (April 6, '13)


MAJOR EARTHQUAKE STRIKES INDONESIA TODAY, MAGNITUDE 7.2.


A pretty powerful quake has just hit a rural section of Indonesia in the Papua New Guinea area. It was about 75km deep and probably not very impactful due to its location, according to the USGS. Nonetheless, this region bears watching as I'm a bit concerned this could be a FORESHOCK befoe a larger one later today or tomorrow. All eyes on Indonesia and other major quake risk areas. 


This calls for an EARTHQUAKE WATCH from APRIL 6 to APRIL 7.

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UPDATE #3 (Apr. 14th, 2013)

SEVERE WEATHER/ TORNADO WATCH, APRIL 16th - 18th 2013,  SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.

Weather forecast models are beginning to show hints of a larger and perhaps more violent Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak for April 16 - 18, with the time span between April 17 and April 18 looking the most significant. The main area to watch appears to be the South-Central portion of the U.S. from Eastern Texas east towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. Caution during this time period is strongly advised, stay tuned to your local weather stations if you live in this region.

See Link Below, Valid for April 17-18, for Shaded Risk region. t:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midweek-severe-weather-threat/10272748

More information on this specific evolving Weather Situation can be read about in the following Meteorology forum, Storm2K:


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114885


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The Latest: (April 16th, nighttime)

Powerful Earthquake struck Iran today, magnitude 7.8. Several fatalities are a real possibility, likely in the dozens to low 100's and many homes may have been damaged. Keep an eye on this region!

SEVERE WEATHER/ TORNADO WATCH STILL UP FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. 4/17-4/18.

  All areas along eastern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastwards through states including Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois should keep an eye to the sky and an ear on their local weather stations tomorrow through Thursday. I have a feeling this could be a pretty big outbreak and perhaps the first really bad twister event of the month and one of the year's most significant. As some meteorologists are saying, this could be "one of the worst outbreaks of the year".

Stay tuned to your local weather stations if you are in this area!

See the link below to view the risk areas:


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midweek-severe-weather-threat/10272748


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APRIL 18th UPDATE

Tornado Watch expanding Northeast from the area affected yesterday...

PDS TORNADO WATCH 4/18...FOR:
EASTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN


This appears to be a Particularly Dangerous Situation. Stay tuned, this should occur during the day today!

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DISASTER in the news:

  Strong Magnitude 6.6 ravaged the Sichuan region of China on Saturday, April 20, killing nearly 200 people as the quake sheared off mountainsides and caused major landslides and severe damage to several buildings. Last that I heard, there were 11,000 injured. This has been the worst natural disaster of the year thus far. The area needs continued monitoring for powerful aftershocks.
 

First Interview, Introduction of Methods for Disaster Date Prediction

         Hello all,

  Thanks for taking the time to look at this special post, one made for you to hear a good piece of information regarding what I do and how I make the monthly forecasts in my blog. I provide the link below:

SpiritualParanormalProphecy.com

In this amazing homepage dedicated to the supernatural, you will find a 2-part audible interview in which I explain many things about my prediction system and answer questions. Simply scroll down a little bit until you find the two windows with my name: German Franco. There you click on the arrows to begin listening.

Hope you may like it!

March 2013...Storms and Quakes to dominate.

Hello y'all!

February 2013 sure brought its fair share of natural happenings, such as the magnitude 8.0 earthquake in the Solomon Islands, the snowstorms across the northern and northeast U.S., tornadoes, and even a cyclone in Madagascar. After this somewhat active month for snowstorms and earthquakes, you may be wondering what March 2013 may have in store. Well folks, it looks to continue the active trend seen this February. March 2013 may feature more powerful earthquakes and storms, and could spotlight severe weather events towards the latter part of the month, let's have a look at what the 3rd month of 2013 may have in store:

March 1: Possible Scenario: A strong earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, possibly around the Magnitude 6.5+ range. A Landslide is also possible on this day, especially in mountainous areas having heavy rains. Main Areas to Watch: watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia. Also watch mountainous areas for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 15 percent.

March 3-7: (Several possibilities) Most Likely Scenario: A major winter storm could take shape during this time, especially towards March 5th-7th, with potentially significant impacts. Second Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake strikes during the period, especially on March 3 and March 6-7, with possibly significant impacts. The quake may surpass Magnitude 7.0 if it were to occur. Other Possible Scenarios: Cyclone forms and affects the south Pacific, mainly Australia or Madagascar/East Africa. Severe Weather due to winter storms to the north may not be completely ruled out during this time either. Main Areas to Watch: For the Bad Weather: Keep close watch over the Eastern and Northeastern portion of the U.S. and Europe for potential winter storms during this time. Watch the southern U.S. for possible severe weather ahead of any cold fronts then as well, and also watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then as well. For the Earthquake: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and Eastern Europe, SE Asia. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this period is 25 percent with a 15 percent chance that the disaster becomes severe.

March 13: (A day similar to March 1st) Possible Scenario: A strong earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, possibly around the Magnitude 6.5+ range, strikes on this day. A Landslide is also possible, especially in mountainous areas having heavy rains, as a second alternate sudden event. Second Possible Scenario Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak is also a possibility, and might be associated with the following risk period's event (March 15). Main Areas to Watch: watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia. watch the south and Central U.S. for possible severe weather and tornadoes. Also watch mountainous areas for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 15 percent.

March 15: Possible Scenario: A Powerful Earthquake with possibly significant impacts, likely in the Magnitude 7.0 range, could strike in on this day. There's an outside chance this earthquake takes place just before or after this date, making the period March 14-16 the time to watch with the main date being the 15th. A Landslide/Mudslide might also occur on this date as a 2nd alternate sudden event scenario. Second Possible Scenario: Severe Weather, especially relating to thunderstorms, flash floods and tornadoes. A significant tornado or tornado outbreak is possible on or right around this date as well. An outside chance exists that this day brings a quick-hitting cyclone in the south Pacific as well. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and northeast Europe to Alaska, SE Asia. For the Bad Weather: Monitor regions with mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for possible landslides and flash floods. Watch the southern and Central U.S. for possible severe weather/tornadoes ahead of any cold fronts then as well. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 25 percent and the chance that the event becomes severe is 15 percent.

March 19: Possible Scenario: Strong Earthquake, with possibly moderate impacts, strikes on this date and has a strength or impacts similar to the Magnitude 6.5 to 7.0 range. Landslides cannot be ruled out on this date as well, especially near areas receiving heavy rains near mountains. Second Possible Scenario: A Tornado outbreak, or bout of Severe Weather could hit as well. Again, there is also a chance for a rapidly moving cyclone to make its mark on this date. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch places such as South and North America's western coasts, Africa's northern and eastern sector, and eastern Europe, SE Asia. For the Bad Weather: Watch the southern portion of the U.S. for possible severe weather and strong tornadoes ahead of any cold fronts. Also, monitor regions with mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 15 percent.

March 21-25: (The most dangerous period this month) Most Likely Scenario: Major Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak with potentially severe impacts. This event may be caused by a major late-season winter storm affecting more northern regions. Second Likely Scenario: Major Cyclone, with possibly devastating impacts, strikes during this period in the South Indian/South Pacific Ocean region. Third Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts strikes, especially on March 21 and primarily March 24 – 25, with significant Tsunami risk. Such a quake during this time may approach Magnitude 8.0. A major natural disaster is likely during this time. Main Areas to Watch: A period like this warrants much of the world's attention. For the Bad Weather: Watch the Southern and Central portion of the U.S. for possible severe weather and strong tornadoes ahead of any cold fronts...be on the lookout should severe weather become forecast by this time, as it could prove to be a serious situation. Watch the colder regions of North America, Europe and Asia for a potential late-season winter storm, especially near the ocean. Monitor the South Pacific and South Indian Oceans for a potentially destructive cyclone during this time as well. Also monitor regions with mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for possible landslides.For the Earthquake: Watch world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South, Central and North America's western coasts and eastern Europe, SE Asia. Also watch other quake-prone regions, like northern Africa and the Middle East. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 40 percent, with a 30 percent chance for the disaster to become severe in nature.

March 28: Most Likely Scenario: Strong Earthquake with possibly significant impacts, possibly around Magnitude 7.0, or with impacts typical of a quake of this range. Landslides and other sudden natural events/disasters are also possible on this date. Second Likely Scenario: Significant Tornado/Severe Weather Outbreak, most likely occurring in the Southern half of the U.S. Other Possible Scenarios: Strong cyclone, a fast mover possibly, strikes on this day in East Africa/Madagascar or Australia. Flash Floods are also a possibility. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the Pacific Ring of Fire and other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as East Europe and Japan/Southeast Asia. Beware mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for landslides. Lookout along the southern sector of the United States should severe weather become forecast by this date. Watch the South Indian Ocean for possible landfalling cyclones, especially in Madagascar and Australia. Significant Risk: The chance for a natural disaster is 20 percent on this date, with a 10 percent chance it is severe.

March 31: Possible Scenario: A strong earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, possibly around the Magnitude 6.5 range, strikes on this day. A Landslide is also possible, especially in mountainous areas having heavy rains, as a second alternate sudden event. Second Possible Scenario Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak is also a possibility. Main Areas to Watch: watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, especially the Western Americas, Northeastern Europe, as well as Southeastern Europe, Japan/Southeast Asia. watch the South and Central U.S. for possible severe weather and tornadoes. Also watch mountainous areas for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 15 percent.

The Month at a Glance:

March 2013 is set to rival February 2013, with perhaps more in the way of nasty and destructive storms around the world. Tornadoes and other forms of severe weather will likely make the biggest headlines during this month, and the main regions for this to occur in are the south/central U.S., parts of Europe, and the South Pacific and South Indian Ocean, where cyclones could also strike during the more weather-event prone dates above. Of all the dates this month, March 6th, March 15th, and March 23rd-25th are the most significant risk dates, where March 24 is the most powerful date of the year thus far! Only a handful of dates towards the end of the year rival this one or surpass it in terms of risk level, so it seems likely that we will see One major natural disaster in March this year, with perhaps up to 2 notable natural disasters happening elsewhere during this month. There is also enough potential for a massive earthquake to strike during this month, so all earthquake regions should be aware.

Overall This March, watch North America and Europe, primarily the central and southern United States for possible severe weather events during any of the above mentioned dates, the South Pacific around Australia for possible cyclones, and any other world regions experiencing bad weather then. Watch earthquake-prone regions of the World closely, primarily along the Pacific Ring of Fire region or near other areas recently experiencing earthquake activity. March 2013 is particularly prone to weather-related disasters and earthquakes, and is one of the more active months of 2013.

I wish everyone a safe and good month of March, no matter what storms it may bring. Stay tuned y'all!

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UPDATE #1 (As of March 11, '13)

EARTHQUAKE WATCH FOR WORLD'S QUAKE ZONES, PRIMARILY INDONESIA AND THE FAR NORTH PACIFIC...FOR PERIOD CONCERNING 3/13 - 3/16, WITH MARCH 13 AND MARCH 15 BEING THE MAIN DATES TO WATCH. 

We will need to be on guard for a potential strong earthquake coming up during this time, it could attain Magnitude 7.0+ or cause impacts related to quakes of this magnitude. Other sudden-event natural disasters such as Landslides, Tornadoes and Flash Floods cannot be ruled out during this time as well.

I will post more updates as necessary.

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UPDATE #2 (Midnight early on March 23, '13)

SEVERE WEATHER & TORNADO WATCH:

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR MARCH 23-25.

The weather pattern over the Southern/Southeastern portion of the U.S. is becoming more and more favorable for possible severe weather outbreaks to occur beginning later today into the nighttime hours through Palm Sunday morning. Some Tornadoes are possible along with the strongest thunderstorms according to meteorologists at the present time. I urge those of you who are in the South, say between Louisiana and North Florida/Georgia, and perhaps South Carolina later on Sunday, to be extra careful as this coincides with the most powerful date of this month...March 24, Palm Sunday. Because of this, there is a risk that the severe weather event becomes much more severe than forecast, where luck may not be by our side and a rogue tornado turns into a violent, destructive and perhaps deadly storm. In my honest opinion, this is not a situation to be taken lightly, even if news-stations mention only a low risk for tornadoes. These dates favor disaster, and to see this weather setup unfold for these very dates is enough reason for me to raise the warning flag. If you are in this area, be prepared and be safe! 

See this link to Accuweather.com for further meteorological details about this possible near-future event:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/severe-weather-risk-palm-sunda/8514409


EARTHQUAKE WATCH ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MARCH 24-25, ALL QUAKE ZONES.

Possible M 7.0+ damaging earthquake is possible during these same dates. Be extra wary if you live in earthquake risk areas.

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UPDATE #3 (March 26, early AM)

The Latest

It's been a wild week in the Nature department, with two significant natural disasters taking place and other major natural events around the world. Here's what the week has brought:

March 21: Australian tornado destroyed dozens of homes, injures 20.
March 23: Devastating tornado killed 24 persons and injured hundreds in Bangladesh.
March 24-25: Major Winter Storm across the central and eastern portion of the U.S.
March 25: Landslide killed 6 villagers and left 18 missing in Java, Indonesia following torrential rains.
March 25: Magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck very close to Guatemala City a few hours ago. No damages reported as of yet.

One might wonder...what's next?

This latest risk period came to an end and with it hopefully the last of the disasters. However we still have a bit of potential action left, with March 28 being the next target date. As of now, I'm concerned this day will bring another powerful earthquake...it is a very favorable EQ date.

EARTHQUAKE WATCH 3/28...ALL QUAKE ZONES.

  Watch all seismic regions on this date, and have more emphasis on Indonesia and the Western Americas. The potential exists for a quake over 7.0 in magnitude on this date.