April 2013 brought a whirlwind of action to the world; it was a month full of earthquakes and explosions both man-made and natural. Among the natural disasters seen this past month, we saw two deadly earthquakes strike on April 16th and April 20th, with the latter claiming over 200 lives in China. The April 16 quake was nearly an M 8.0 and in Iran, but luckily struck a rural area claiming few lives for the magnitude it was. Now that the new month is upon us, I have some good news…it seems May 2013 is less likely to bring the level of action seen this April, with no “High Risk” dates in sight. Word of caution however, there are quite a bit of “Modest Risk” dates that can’t be downplayed, and May 2013 could still bring a few events. Let’s see how this month is set up:
May 1:
(As I write this on the early morning of the 1st, a Cyclone is bearing down on North Australia) Likely Scenario: A cyclone, named Zane, will strike the northernmost part of Australia, possibly bringing damaging winds and storm surge. Second Possible Scenario: Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, likely in the Magnitude 6.0 - 6.5 range. A Landslide is also possible on this day. Main Areas to Watch: Watch Northern Australia for the coming cyclone. For the earthquake, watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as the Western Americas, lately the Middle East and East Asia. Also watch mountainous areas for possible landslides. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster resulting from natural events on this date is 15 percent.
May 4-6:
Possible Scenario: Severe Weather and Tornadoes may occur during this time, bringing moderate to significant damage. Second Possible Scenario: A Strong Earthquake could strike during the period especially on May 4 and May 6, with possibly moderate impacts likely in the Magnitude 6.5 to 7.0 range or having impacts typical for quakes of this strength. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the Central U.S. and India/Bangladesh for possible severe weather events and damaging twisters. Also watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity for possible quakes, such as in South and North America's western coasts and eastern Europe, SE Asia. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 15 percent.
May 9-10:
Possible Scenario: Significant Severe Weather/ Tornado outbreak could strike during these dates. Second Possible Scenario: Strong Earthquake with possibly significant impacts, especially on May 10. Third Possible Scenario: Landfalling Cyclone in North Indian Ocean region is also possible during this time. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the Central U.S. and the Indian Subcontinent for potential tornadoes and severe weather. Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and Eastern Europe, SE Asia, for possible quakes. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during these dates is 20 percent with a 10 percent chance for a severe disaster.
May 12:
Possible Scenario: This date may see a Strong Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, likely in the Magnitude 6.5 to 7.0 range. A Landslide/Mudslide might also occur on this date. Second Possible Scenario: Severe Weather, especially relating to tornadoes. Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire or other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South and North America's western coasts and Middle East, SE Asia. Monitor regions with mountains and hilly areas experiencing heavy rains then...for possible landslides. Watch the Central U.S. and the Indian Subcontinent for possible severe weather and tornadoes. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 15 percent.
May 16-17:
Possible Scenario: A Tornado outbreak, or bout of Severe Weather is possible during this two-day period. Second Possible Scenario: North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone could affect land areas in that basin. Third Possible Scenario: A Strong Earthquake is possible during this time as well, especially on May 16. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the Central U.S. and India/Bangladesh region for the possible severe weather and tornadoes. Watch the World’s Earthquake zones closely as well, including the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Western Americas, especially regions recently experiencing EQ activity. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on these dates is 15 percent.
May 21-24:
Most Likely Scenario: Significant Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak could strike during this time frame, with potentially significant impacts. Second Possible Scenario: A Strong Earthquake with possibly significant impacts could strike during this time, especially on May 21 and May 24, and likely have a magnitude between 6.5 and 7.0. Third Possible Scenario: Cyclone could threaten land along the North Indian Ocean, with possibly moderate to significant impacts. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch world areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South, Central and North America's western coasts and Eastern Europe, SE Asia. Also watch other quake-prone regions, like northern and Eastern Africa and the Middle East. For the Bad Weather: Watch the southern portion of the U.S. for possible severe weather and strong tornadoes ahead of any cold fronts, watch the North Indian Ocean Basin for potential cyclones during this time which could affect land. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this 4-day period is 20 percent, with a 10 percent risk for the disaster to become severe.
May 26-27:
Possible Scenario: Severe Weather and Tornadoes could threaten during this time, possibly with moderate impacts. Flash Floods are also a possibility with the severe weather. Other Possible Scenarios: An Earthquake may strike on either date, with possibly moderate impacts, possibly being around Magnitude 6.0 to 6.5. An outside chance exists for there to be a Cyclone in the North Indian Ocean region during these dates as well. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the Central U.S. and the Indian Subcontinent for potential severe weather events and floods. Watch the Pacific Ring of Fire and other world areas recently experiencing EQ activity , such as the Middle East, California and Japan/Southeast Asia. Also monitor the North Indian Ocean for possible Cyclone activity. Modest risk: The chance for a natural disaster is 10 percent during these dates.
The Month at a Glance:
May 2013 offers a bit of a respite from the natural disasters we’ve seen during the month of April, looking to be a quieter month as a whole. You may notice this month has a few more risk periods than last (7 versus 5 from last month), yet there aren’t any “High Risk” periods anywhere this month versus 2 of them last month. The lack of High Risk dates makes this month less likely to have several natural disasters, and the most likely outcome would be for 1 Natural Disaster to occur somewhere in the World during this month. The disaster will most likely be a Severe Weather episode, a Cyclone in the Indian Ocean or near Australia, or a Strong Earthquake. Overall this should be an average month for natural disasters and therefore a relatively calm one! There is an outside chance that no natural disasters strike this month, since the addition of all the month’s risks for disaster coming from all periods adds up to 95%, meaning there’s 5% chance nothing happens. It would be very unlucky to have two or more natural disasters strike this month. However, even in quieter-looking months like these…we must maintain vigil over the risk areas during the risk dates as sometimes even the “Modest Risk” dates do bring nasty events once in a while.
Well my friends, this is what I see for May 2013. I wish everyone a happy and safe Mother’s Day and a happy month altogether no matter what the weather or what the Earth may bring us. Stay safe y'all! :)
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UPDATE #1...May 15th '13
Looks like Scenario #2 may be unfolding for the May 16-17 period:
Looks like Scenario #2 may be unfolding for the May 16-17 period:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-mahasen-eyes/11912370
Cyclone is threatening Bangladesh and western Myanmar, expected to make landfall Thursday morning, May 16 and have lasting impacts thru Friday. All interests in this region should lookout.
Current official predictions call for this to be much less devastating than the 2008 cyclone, but given the timing, they should prepare now!
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UPDATE #2...May 19th '13, 2:00 AM.
TORNADOES BEING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAY 19, TORNADO WATCH IN CENTRAL U.S.
The Weather Channel and several other weather agencies are honing in on what may be a very active day for tornadoes in the U.S. heartland, including places like Oklahoma and Kansas. Hopefully whatever results from this will not come anywhere close to what happened in Texas a few days ago. Even though this date seemingly doesn't have disaster risk in my predictions, with such attention being given by official weather data...This possible event deserves lots of merit...and I advise caution if you are in Tornado alley later today, Sunday 5/19. Let's hope for the best and that the tornadoes somehow miss populated areas!
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UPDATE #3
CATASTROPHIC TORNADO BREAKS MONTH'S CALM:
MAY 20th, 2013 brings what may have been an EF 5 Tornado to Moore Oklahoma, the same site of another F5 in 1999, with massive damage. This storm was truly surprising, and came a day early, as the 21st-24th favored twisters.What a truly sad scenario folks.
