Hello everyone!!
May 2014 began today and is set to be interesting to say the least. Will it be like April however??
Well my friends, we have come out of a wild month of April in Nature only to enter what seems set to be one of the most strangely set-up months I've ever covered. The trend of having longer and longer risk date periods this year comes to a peak in May, when nearly the entire month becomes one whole natural disaster risk time window. This sounds nuts, but there may be a reason for such a long period...April brought tons of rain and storms to many parts of the world, with the central and southern U.S. having some of the brunt of the heavy rain. Long risk periods often correspond to major flooding events and disasters, and it wouldn't surprise me that this May has some sort of mass flood event, perhaps resulting from overloaded rivers. There are several parts of the world that could have this sort of thing in May, aside from just the U.S. In contrast to all previous predictions made, I will cover the super long period as a whole, and then split it into parts in order to try and pin-point several possible outcomes during different specific dates within the "mothership" risk period. Well fellas, here goes May 2014:
May 1-29:
This is the mothership, godzilla of a risk period I was talking about! Most Likely Scenario: Major Flood, perhaps massive in nature and weeks long in duration. This could most likely be a result of severe river flooding aside from prolonged flooding rains. 2nd Likely Scenario: Back to back Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreaks, with potentially severe impacts. The whole Month of May is ripe for serious tornado episodes, even more so than typical years, and along with heavy rains in many areas there will be the high threat of dangerous storms. 3rd Possible Scenario: Major Earthquakes could also strike during this time, especially on the dates that are mentioned a little further down in the breakdown of this long risk time frame. The Earthquakes may surpass M 7.5 on some of the dates. 4th possible Scenario: Indian Ocean Cyclone could develop and strike India, Bangladesh or other nation bordering the northern Indian Ocean later this month, still within this period. 5th Possibility: Other Prolonged Weather Related Disaster, such as Extreme Temperatures or Drought, could take shape during this time and lead to severe agricultural damage and even casualties. Being May, it will be more likely for there to be a Heat Wave and might be likelier to happen in the Eastern Hemisphere. Drought will be a major concern this month in the Drier parts of the World, as they could get drier while other places get wetter due to climatic extremes in May 2014. High Risk: The chance for a natural disaster to strike at anytime during this very long risk period is 40 percent, with the likelihood for the disaster to be severe being 30 percent.
The Breakdown: Here follows the date-specific look at which days could see which events and scenarios, along with the main areas to watch for each, within this long risk period. The dates are color coded, so look out for the ones in reds and oranges, because they are the worst ones within the month and are more likely to be the ones providing action:
Earthquakes: May 4-5, May 7-8, May 10, May 13-14, May 16-17, May 19, May 21, May 23, May 25, May 27, May 29. Earthquake magnitudes likely to fall between M 7.0 and M 8.0, especially on the stronger dates in red and orange, with possibly severe impacts should earthquakes become the manifested event of this long risk period. Main Areas to Watch: The Pacific Ring of Fire, mainly along the western coasts of the Americas as well as Southeast Asia and Indonesia/Polynesia. Watch regions recently experiencing earthquake activity such as Chile, Central America, New Guinea and the Solomons Islands.
Severe Weather & Tornadoes: May 1-3, May 7-8, May 10-14, May 16-19, May 21-25, May 27-29. Severe weather will likely be very prevalent during at least one of these dates, with many more days perhaps having significant tornado outbreaks. Main Areas to Watch: Primarily the Central and Southern U.S., then the Mid-Atlantic region and Upper Midwest towards the latter part of the month. India and Bangladesh will be another part of the world to watch closely for severe tornadoes during these times.
Major Flooding: May 1-29. The entire period is fair game for flooding disasters, and there could be flash floods or longer-lasting floods including overflowed rivers and levee breaches. This long risk period is prime for flood disasters, especially those that can last for weeks. Landslides will also be a concern if flooding rains become the big event of this risk period. Main Areas to Watch: Keep close watch on world areas near large rivers, such as the Mississippi in the U.S. or the many great rivers in China. Keep special close watch on regions already seeing significant rains and flooding, such as the Southern U.S.
Indian Ocean Cyclone/ Tropical Cyclone: May 10-14, May 16-19, May 21-25. Strong and potentially deadly cyclones are a real possibility this month. Main Areas to Watch: Watch India, Bangladesh and Myanmar the closest for potential tropical storms and cyclones taking shape and heading north into these land areas. Significant loss of life and destruction may occur if this scenario were to play out. Other tropical storms may brew in the Western Pacific and even the Eastern Pacific during this same time.
Droughts and Temperature Extremes: May 1-29. Prolonged temperature extremes and/or Drought conditions are possible anytime during these 29 dates making up this single looooong risk period! Main Areas to Watch: Keep close watch on world areas relatively close to desert regions, such as the American West and Middle East. Some parts of the Indian subcontinent could see a heat wave during this time. Some areas in the Southern hemisphere may also have cold waves of significance this month.
May 31:
Most Possible Scenario: Moderately strong Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts could occur on this date, independent of whatever occurs during May 1-29. The quake could register in the Magnitude 6.5 range. 2nd Possible Scenario: Tornado Outbreak or Flash Flood/Landslide event could also happen on this date. Main Areas to Watch: Monitor the Ring of Fire in areas near and where recent earthquake activity is ongoing prior to this day. Watch the Central and Southern U.S. as well as the Indian Subcontinent for severe weather and tornadoes. Modest Risk: The chance that natural disaster strikes on this date is 10 percent.
The Month at a Glance
May 2014 is really one of the strangest months I've ever covered. It may not be the most intense risk month, or the one with the most risk periods but sure is the one with the longest single period...an astonishingly long 29 days! This leads me to believe that we will likely see a very prolonged type of natural disaster this month, most likely resulting from flooding rain and river floods that will probably be caused by loads of severe weather across parts of the world. Other events are also still possible this month, being cyclones and earthquakes, but will be secondary risks compared to the big water-type event I'm sensing for this month of May. Despite having only 2 independent risk periods, the entire month of May is practically fair game for natural disasters, and if the 40 percent disaster risk pulls through for May 1-29, we could be seeing a historic month for natural disasters unfold. If not, then the month will go out quietly hopefully. *This is a very tricky month to predict*...as of this point I can say expect 1 Natural Disaster, Possibly 2 disasters, which will be potentially severe in nature...mainly due to the weather. We cannot rule out powerful earthquakes however, especially during the quake dates mentioned above.
Well folks, that's what I see for May 2014! Have a safe one y'all.
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UPDATE #1...5/16/14...11:38 PM.
EARTHQUAKE WATCH 5/17/14 Through 5/19/14
ESPECIALLY FOR RING OF FIRE & CARIBBEAN
We are in a moment of time that is ripe for major earthquake activity. The date May 17th 2014 is dangerous and could deal a major M 7.0+ earthquake to parts of the world. Lately the western coasts of Central America and the Caribbean have been active, so this region is the hot spot to watch from May 17 to May 19 for now. Other areas, including Indonesia, Southeast Asia, Japan and the Middle East should also be watched closely during this time as well. This is an earthquake watch! This means a powerful earthquake is likely during this time.
The map below outlines the areas I feel need closest watch, with regions outlined in Red and Orange bearing the Highest risks, and areas in Green and Blue having moderate and low risks respectively. Here's the map for 5/17 - 5/19 2014:
DEVASTATING LANDSLIDE SLAMMED AFGHANISTAN ON MAY 2nd 2014
Over 2500 people were buried under 150 feet of earth when heavy rains triggered twin mudslides down a mountainside, destroying much of a village in northeastern Afghanistan on Friday May 2nd. This is 2014's worst disaster to date. Full story here: http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/05/world/asia/afghanistan-landslide/
