July 2014 is a very versatile-looking month, which could make it tricky to predict the type of natural events and disasters that we may see this month. Looking back on June, we saw a fair amount of activity ranging from tornadoes to the massive M 8.0 Alaska earthquake. Fortunately, June spared many lives despite the action, when even the Alaska quake didn't do much harm. Will July be the same? Well, it looks to begin sort of like June did, but could quickly differ by the second half of the month. This month sees a return to the high flood and severe weather risks we saw back in May, with a high Earthquake risk thrown in the mix as well. Late July brings one of the strongest risk dates of the year (July 28), which adds quite a punch to the longest and final risk period of the month, and makes the month even trickier to pin down. It seems we may be entering a month that will have a surprise or two, so not much of a calm-down is foreseen. Well my friends, here goes July 2014 FireRat style:
July 2-5:
Likely Scenario: This 4-day period could bring Severe Weather and Tornadoes, with Significant Flooding being a strong possibility. Damaging winds and hail are other equally likely dangers during these dates. 2nd Possible Scenario: A Tropical Storm or Typhoon could take shape and affect land areas in the Atlantic or Pacific oceans, possibly leading to the Significant Flooding aspect of this period. This is a good time for tropical activity to ramp up. 3rd Possible Scenario: A strong Earthquake can also take place during this period, especially on July 2 and July 5. The magnitude of this possible quake could fall in the M 6.5-7.0 range and possibly cause moderate impacts. Moderate Risk: The chance for natural disasters to strike during these two days is 15 percent.
July 9:
Likely Scenario: A relatively strong Earthquake could happen on this date, likely measuring between Magnitude 6.0 and 6.5 or causing impacts typical of an earthquake of this magnitude. The earthquake would most likely cause moderate impacts near its epicenter. 2nd Possible Scenario: A Severe Weather episode is another thing to look out for on this date. The more likely type of disaster effect coming from severe weather for this day is Flash Flooding, which could be triggered by sudden, heavy storms. 3rd Possible Scenario: A Landslide or Mudslide may also strike on this date, possibly caused by heavy rains from scenario #2, or even an earthquake. Single risk dates like this one are quite prone to these sudden types of natural disasters, fortunately the risk level associated with this day isn't high. Moderate Risk: The chance for one of these natural disasters to occur on July 9 is 10 percent.
July 12:
This date is a slightly stronger version of July 9th. Most Likely Scenario: A Strong Earthquake is possible on this date, likely measuring between Magnitude 6.5 and 7.0 and/or causing impacts typical of an earthquake of this magnitude. This possible earthquake may result in moderate to significant impacts near where it strikes. 2nd Possible Scenario: Another Severe Weather and Tornado outbreak could be in store for this date. Again, just like in the July 9 prediction, the more likely type of severe weather event for this day is Flash Flooding, which could be triggered by extreme sudden rains. Tornadoes still cannot be ruled out for this particular day. 3rd Possible Scenario: A Landslide or Mudslide could still take place on this day, possibly caused by either heavy rains or an earthquake. Moderate Risk: The chance for one of these natural disasters to occur on this date is 15 percent.
July 16-31:
This is where the forecast turns a bit tricky, we return to having an extremely long risk period much like we did in April and May. Most Likely Scenario: A Major Flood, perhaps massive in nature, is very likely to occur during the second half of July. This event may be another Severe River Flood, or a Widespread Flooding Disaster brought on by several back-to-back rainstorms or tropical cyclone activity. This event becomes likelier as the month nears its end and progresses into August. 2nd Likely Scenario: A Major Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak, or Series of Severe Weather Outbreaks is quite likely during this very long risk period. Severe wind damage, hail, and flash flooding will be things to lookout for during this time. There could still be several powerful and destructive tornadoes this July, despite the fact that Tornado Season typically slows down by this time of the year. The most intense days of the month are within this risk period and they are July 16, July 18-19, July 22-23, and especially July 28-30, with July 28th-29th being the two most powerful risk dates. Any of these dates are likely to be the main moments of action during this period, and are the days to watch most closely for weather disasters and other events. 3rd Likely Scenario: A Major Earthquake could also take place during this time, likely causing severe impacts. These dates, particularly the days around July 28, favor massive earthquakes which could be of Magnitude 7.5 - 8.5. Other earthquake favoring dates include July 16, July 22-23 and July 25. A Tsunami is also likely during this time, which could be produced by a sufficiently strong quake. 4th Possible Scenario: We may see more than one Tropical Storm, Hurricane, or Typhoon strike land during this second part of the month. July typically begins seeing a little more tropical storm activity in the northern hemisphere, and with the way these dates look, we may see more than one...and at least one major tropical cyclone, most likely being a powerful West Pacific Typhoon. flooding concerns will be high during this time, and tropical cyclones could be the culprits behind the big flood event that I foresee for this period. 5th Possible Scenario: Major Flash Floods and/or Mudslides and Landslides are also possible, likely triggered by severe weather and heavy rains or tropical storm activity. Volcanic Eruptions are also not out of the question during the more intense risk days of this long period. High Risk: The chance for natural disasters to strike during this major risk period is a very high 40 percent, with a 30 percent chance for the event to be severe in nature.
The Breakdown: Here follows the date-specific look at exactly when we could see what events and scenarios, along with the main areas to watch for each of the possible events! The dates are color coded, so look out for the ones in reds and oranges because they are the ones likelier to be the ones providing the specific events:
Earthquakes: July 2, July 5, July 9, July 12, July 16, July 18-19, July 22-23, July 25, July 28-30. Earthquake magnitudes are likely to fall between M 7.0 and M 8.0 on the stronger dates in red and orange, with possibly severe impacts should earthquakes become the manifested event. Main Areas to Watch: The Pacific Ring of Fire, mainly along the western coasts of the Americas as well as Southeast Asia and Indonesia/Polynesia. Also, watch the Caribbean region and the Middle East. Watch regions recently experiencing earthquake activity such as Alaska and New Zealand most closely.
River Flood/ Mass Flooding Event: July 16-31
A massive flood, likely being a river flood or widespread flooding disaster is likely during the 2n half of July. This could be a result of several weather factors ranging from severe weather to tropical cyclone activity. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the world's largest rivers closely, especially in North America, Central & Southwestern Europe, and Southeast & East-Central Asia. Also watch closely regions experiencing severe rains by then.
Severe Weather & Tornadoes: July 2-5, July 9, July 12, July 16-19, July 20-21, July 22-23, July 24-27, July 28-31. Severe Weather and Tornadoes are still a big possibility this July, especially on the colored dates above. Main Areas to Watch: Primarily the North-Central U.S. and other Northern parts of the U.S. including the Midwest and Northeast. Central and Northern Europe will be another part of the world to watch closely for severe weather during these dates.
Flash Floods and Landslides: July 2-5, July 9, July 12, July 16-19, July 20-27, July 28-30. July is a particularly prone month for Flash Flooding disasters, beware the colored dates the most. Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas experiencing heavy rainfall or severe weather, especially in and around hilly regions. The Central U.S. and Southeast Asia are example prime locations to watch. Also keep a close eye on any world regions about to experience a tropical storm or cyclone impact during these days, since heavy rains from these storms tend to cause killer mudslides and fast-moving floods.
Tropical Storms, Hurricanes and Typhoons: July 2-5, July 16-31. There could be action in the tropics as July progresses, especially during the 2nd half of the month. We could see tropical systems in the Pacific or even Atlantic Ocean basins worth watching this month. Main Areas to Watch: Keep an eye on the Western Pacific, East Pacific and Western Atlantic for potential tropical cyclones affecting land during this month.
Volcanic Eruptions: July 9, July 12, July 16, July 28-29. This month has some sudden-event prone dates and a very powerful date at month's end, which are ones to watch volcanoes closely. Main Areas to Watch: Monitor the world's most active volcanoes, such as those in Indonesia and Alaska for example.
*The Month's Most Intense Risk Days overall are: July 16, July 18-19, July 22, July 28-29.
The Month at a Glance:
July 2014 appears to begin on the normal side of things, with not very much risk for natural disasters, but then head towards a very active second half. In the second half we see a return to the risk date patterns seen in May, and this could spell some bad weather and lots of water woes. This month may end up being above-average for natural events and disasters if the July 16-31 period delivers its full potential. We have variety this month, with some days favoring earthquakes and other sudden natural events, while other days favor prolonged weather disasters and even weeks-long events. This month is a bit tricky to predict, but the most safe bet would be to expect 2 to 3 natural disasters in July 2014 despite just having 4 separate risk periods, and ONE of these events will possibly be a Major Natural Disaster. The worst event of the month will likely take place during the 2nd half of July, most likely around July 28th. The main stories this July will be Weather Disasters, Flooding, and perhaps one powerful Earthquake. We'll have to be on watch as the latter risk days approach, and I will be posting several updates this month!
Well folks, that's July 2014...do not let the weather ruin your 4th of July celebrations and other summer festivities!
You can also watch my predictions on youtube now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7XPxviy9i4&feature=youtu.be
-NUTStradamus aka 'FireRat'.
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UPDATE.....7/27/14 @ 8:54 PM
EARTHQUAKE WARNING JULY 28-30
Potential M. 8.0+ Earthquake with possible Tsunami.
Watch regions colored in the map below the closest.
Red and Orange are the riskiest places for this timeframe.
Valid 7-28-14 to 7-30-14
