October is now here and the seasons are set to change as we press into Autumn (or Spring if you're in the southern hemisphere). This change however, may not be so gentle and gradual because the month is riddled with dates that favor weather events and perhaps weather disasters. This month, it seems tropical cyclones and floods may be the dominant issues, so precaution is advised. The following is what I feel is how the month of October will pan out, check it out y'all:
October 7-9:
One Possible Scenario: A Tropical Storm System, either a Typhoon or a Hurricane could make things interesting during this time,perhaps bringing moderate to significant impacts to land areas. This could very well be related to Tropical Storm Karen, which is currently poised to strike the Northern U.S. Gulf coast as a tropical storm...which may lead to potential flooding rains as we head into these dates across the Southeastern U.S. 2nd Possible Scenario: A Weather-related Disaster, likely in the form of Flash Flooding, Severe Weather, and even Landslides caused by heavy rain, is also a sizable probability during this risk period. It may or may not be a side effect of tropical storms then; really any region experiencing nasty weather should be on guard for one of these weather-related side effects. 3rd Possible Scenario: A strong earthquake is also possible, likeliest on October 8th and possibly attaining Magnitude 7.0 with probable damaging impacts. Main Areas to Watch: For the Weather and Storms: Watch the Gulf of Mexico region of North America, the Caribbean, Asia and Europe with extra attention on Southeast Asia for tropical cyclone activity. The U.S. and Canada could also be a target for tropical storms wandering north out of the tropics during this time, especially in the southern portion of the U.S. To be safe, keep an eye on any other world area experiencing bad weather as well since other weather-related disasters such as floods and mudslides, and even tornadoes are also possible. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Pakistan for example. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 25 percent with a 15 percent risk that the disaster becomes severe.
October 17-20:
Most Likely Scenario: Strong Typhoon or Hurricane, with possibly significant to severe impacts to land areas which it hits. These dates are pretty potent, especially early from October 17-18 and perhaps set up for a major natural disaster, possibly resulting from a tropical cyclone. This happens to be right during what is known as the "second peak" of Hurricane Season in both West Pacific and Atlantic, so caution is advised should a named storm develop by then and set its sights on a particular region. 2nd Likely Scenario: A Powerful Earthquake, with possibly significant impacts, can also occur during this time, primarily on October 17-18 and to a lesser extent on October 20. Such a quake could reach or even surpass magnitude 7.0, and prove quite destructive. 3rd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather outside tropical storms and hurricanes is also possible, with the main threats perhaps being Flash Floods and Mudslides. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, especially if the severe weather events are caused by cold fronts. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather, including Hurricanes and Typhoons: Watch the Western Pacific, as well as the Central and Eastern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the general vicinity of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for potentially strong tropical cyclones...with a wary eye on Central America as well as Southeast Asia, especially around Taiwan and the Philippines, when it comes to floods and landslides in addition to tropical storms and typhoons. Aside from areas already mentioned, monitor any other world area experiencing bad weather by then just to be on the safe side. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, such as New Zealand or South Asia for example. High Risk: The risk for natural disaster during this time is 30 percent, with the chance for the disaster becoming severe being 20 percent.
October 23-29:
Most Likely Scenario: This rather long risk period could bring a Major Weather-Related Disaster, possibly Tropical-Cyclone related with possibly significant to severe impacts. This time of year, the area at most risk would be the Western Pacific basin, especially from the Philippines to Taiwan, Southern China and Southern Japan. A major typhoon is very possible during this time. Should a tropical cyclone exist prior to this date and be heading in the general direction of land, the risk for this event will go up significantly. 2nd Likely Scenario: Another type of weather-related disaster could occur during these days, most likely in the form of a Massive Flood, Severe Weather including tornadoes, or even a series of Mudslides. 3rd Possible Scenario: A Major Earthquake could also make headlines during this period, especially on the dates of October 23-24, even more on October 27, and to a slightly lesser extent on October 29. These dates are pretty powerful as well, and due to this the risk for a quake over Magnitude 7.0 is again very real. Main Areas to Watch: For the possible weather events: Watch much of the Western Pacific, as well as the Central and Eastern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the general vicinity of the Caribbean Islands for possible significant tropical cyclone action. There is a particularly high risk for major typhoons during this time frame. Keep a wary eye on any other world regions experiencing bad weather by then, as floods and landslides remain a sizable possibility as well, particularly in East and Southeast Asia as well as Central America. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Eastern Asia for example. Southeast Asia is also a hot spot for volcano activity, so monitor the region closely for even this as well. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is a substantial 30 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe being about 20 percent.
The Month at a Glance:
October 2013 features less in the way of the number of risk periods compared to the September past...but the THREE risk periods this month are very strong, at "Significant category" or greater, leading to the probability that two natural disasters will strike in October 2013, with one of these possibly being severe in nature. Typhoons, Hurricanes, Floods and other related weather disasters could be the main news-breakers this month, and any regions set to receive nasty weather by the above risk dates should be monitored very closely. With the power of the risk dates this month, there is also a risk for seeing a major and destructive earthquake. Bottom line, October 2013 does not look like it will slow the pace of natural disasters that began in September...and we may be seeing one or two natural disasters this month...in which one, or even both, could come from the weather. Earthquake disasters are still possible this month, so EQ zones can't let their guard down either!
Updates will be posted, possibly often, whenever necessary!
Have a safe and happy month no matter what Mother/Father Nature decides to bring.
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UPDATE #1....October 4th @ 11:25 PM
TROPICAL STORM KAREN TO AFFECT NORTHERN GULF COAST
TROPICAL STORM KAREN TO AFFECT NORTHERN GULF COAST
This storm sprang up fast a few days ago and is now setting its sights on the Southeastern U.S. and Northern Gulf Coast late tomorrow into Sunday. Right now its is still predicted to come ashore as a tropical storm and not a hurricane. In my opinion, this sounds about right since it will be coming in just before the upcoming risk period gets going...so chances are that its initial landfall will not be more than just a nuisance for some. However, its remnants are forecast to still be in the Southeast U.S. by the start of this period (the 7th and 8th), so I feel it may cause some of the possible impacts mentioned in the scenarios for these dates...mainly flooding rains. Watch the situation closely if you will be in this region (mainly Georgia and the Carolinas) as we head into these dates.
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UPDATE #2...October 10th @ 9:41 PM
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CYCLONE HEADING FOR INDIA...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY.
It will be a miracle if India dodges severe impacts from this one.
The storm is poised to make landfall in just a little over a day's time, on Saturday India local time. It has literally blossomed "overnight" from a weak tropical storm to a monster cyclone in just 36 hours! Currently, forecasters are warning this system could strike as a category 4 or even 5 storm, with potentially devastating results. It is about the same size that Hurricane Katrina was in the Gulf of Mexico 8 years ago. Lets hope for the best possible scenario with this storm.
I just hope that the fact this thing is supposed to hit on dates that supposedly have no risk for disaster means something, and that a major disaster is somehow luckily avoided. However, with caution I say anyone in this region should take utmost care and prepare for the worst, no matter what day this hits land!
The Cyclone's Projected Path toward Northeast India
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UPDATE #3...OCT. 16 @ 11:20 PM
CYCLONE'S IMPACT MUCH LOWER THAN FEARED
The cyclone that struck India a few days ago weakened right before landfall to a 120 MPH storm, and produced a smaller storm surge than feared. This in tandem with the successful preparedness of the Indian Government and the well-done evacuations kept the death toll at a minimum. The storm that could have killed 10,000+ claimed 25 lives, many of which were indirectly caused by the cyclone. Damages were still heavy, but not as severe as feared as well. Overall hats off to India for their preparation efforts because they really paid off!
MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (7.1) STRIKES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES ON 10/15
Nearly 150 people lost their lives in the Central Philippines when a strong earthquake struck at 8:12 in the morning of the 15th, crumbling several buildings and leaving major damage in parts of the nation, most affected the island of Bohol. Nearly 300 others were injured in this latest earthquake disaster.
ANOTHER MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (M. 7.0+) LIKELY SOON. EARTHQUAKE WATCH UP NOW FOR OCTOBER 17-20, SOUTHEAST ASIA THE LIKELIEST TARGET.
With all the recent earthquake activity, I am somewhat concerned that we may see another, perhaps stronger earthquake in Southeast Asia in the next few days. Other earthquake zones should also be watched closely just in case. The map below shows where I feel a strong or major earthquake could strike during the October 17-20 period:
10-17-13 Through 10-20-13
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UPDATE #4...10/23/13 @ 3:00 AMNEW QUAKE RISK MAP...EARTHQUAKE WATCH FOR OCT. 23-29.
Watch October 23-25, 27, and 29 the closest!
Valid 10/23 Thru 10/29
