July 2013's Potential Events

Hello all,

 The time has come for the July 2013 predictions, and this month is set to bring more-or-less similar events to what we've seen in the last 2 months: Severe Weather, Floods and Tornadoes. However, a new element exists in this month's predictions and this one is the Hurricane, which might come to fruition during the 2nd half of July. Don't let all this scare you though, this month looks to be only about average in terms of the number of natural disasters (1 or 2 medium sized events, anywhere in the world), and not calamitous. June 2013 was quiet for the most part, but saw one major natural disaster in India during the middle of the month due to heavy rains and flash floods. This kind of natural event is also likely in July, so we will need to be watchful nonetheless. Well my fellow readers, here goes the month of July 2013 forecast:

July 9:
Possible Scenario: Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, Magnitude will possibly be between 6.0 and 6.5. 2nd Possible Scenario: Severe Storms, with possible Flash Floods and a few Tornadoes. Such weather may provoke landslides in mountainous regions. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like the Mediterranean for example. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with an extra eye on Southeast Asia, which is a primary target for monsoon storms and floods this time of year. Also watch any other world areas experiencing bad weather then. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 10 percent.

July 11:
(Similar to July 9) Possible Scenario: Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, with the Magnitude probably being between 6.0 and 6.5 again. 2nd Possible Scenario: Severe Storms, with possible Flash Floods and a few Tornadoes. Such weather may provoke landslides in mountainous regions. There's an outside chance that July 10th bridges together the two weather events of July 9 and 11 into one. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like central America for example. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia (especially S.E. Asia) and Europe for strong storms and possible floods. Monitor any other world areas experiencing bad weather then as well. Modest Risk: The probability for natural disaster to strike on this date is 10 percent.

July 19-22:
Most Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Floods likely and possible Tornadoes, probably causing significant impacts. 2nd Possible Scenario: A tropical Storm or Hurricane/Typhoon may landfall during this time frame. Main Areas to Watch: Watch North America, the Caribbean, Asia and Europe...with a wary eye on Southeast Asia when it comes to floods. The Atlantic/Caribbean or East/West Pacific may come alive with tropical activity and storms during this time. The Northern half of the U.S. and southern Canada may be prime targets for the Severe Weather and Tornadoes. Last but not least, monitor any other world area experiencing bad weather by then. Significant Risk: The risk for natural disaster during this time is 20 percent, with the chance for the disaster becoming severe being 10 percent.

July 26-27:
Most Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Flash Floods likely, this weather event or disaster might also be the result of a tropical storm system. Tornadoes may also result from this weather episode. 2nd Possible Scenario: Strong Earthquake with possibly significant impacts might also strike, especially on July 26. It may be around 7.0 in Magnitude. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with again...extra attention on Southeast Asia. The U.S. and Canada is still the prime target for Severe Weather and Tornadoes during this time. Watch the Tropics as well as any other world area experiencing bad weather by then. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like China for example. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this two-day period is 20 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe being 10 percent.

July 29:
Possible Scenario: Strong Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, with the Magnitude probably being a 6.5 to 7.0. 2nd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Flash Floods and probable Tornadoes, possibly lasting into July 30. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Iran and the Middle East for example. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with an extra eye on Southeast Asia. Also, watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is about 15 percent.

July 31:
(Continued into August 1) Likely Scenario: Significant Severe Weather Outbreak, likely sparking Flash Floods and even Tornadoes. This event may be caused by a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon's landfall. 2nd Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts, much likelier to occur on August 1st. This quake may near the Magnitude 8.0. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with extra attention on Southeast Asia. The U.S. and Canada is still the prime target for Severe Weather and Tornadoes during this time. Watch the Tropics closely, as well as any other world area experiencing bad weather by then. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like California for example. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during the July 31-August 1 period is 35 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe at 25 percent.

The Month at a Glance:

July looks busier than June and is comparable to May in the way that it looks, with perhaps 2 natural disasters in the cards for the world this month, one of them perhaps being severe in nature. The very last date of the month has a high amount of potential due to it being adjacent to August 1st 2013, which is a very powerful date and one that will be looked at in more depth come the August post. Due to this, July 31 warrants attention and may be a deal-breaker should it bring something...making July even more active. Overall, July 2013 looks about average on paper when taking off the last day of the month...and we can expect to see 1 to 2 natural disasters this month with one of them likely being weather related and the other an earthquake. In addition, the second half of July looks to be much more active than the first half, and may foster both events. Well folks, that's what seems in store for July of this year, may all have a safe and benevolent month no matter what Nature brings. Updates will be posted as needed.

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UPDATE #1 (as of JULY 19th '13)

Some computer weather forecast models are beginning to pick up on a potential tropical storm forming off the Western African coast and heading westbound around July 26. typically, storms that form in this area this time of year would be 5 to 7 days away from affecting land areas (the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands) should they not re-curve north out to sea. 5 to 7 days out would put such a storm in the vicinity of the islands right during the dangerous July 31-August 1 period. Tropical storms in this part of the world can easily strengthen into Hurricanes as we near August. This may be a warning too early, but given the setup it definitely bears watching over the next couple of weeks.


You can see a thread from a Weather site regarding the models here: 
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115249&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=20

One of the Computer Models showing a developing Tropical Storm by July 26:

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UPDATE #2...July 22, 2013.

DEADLY QUAKE STRIKES CHINA 7/22

A strong earthquake struck Northwestern China's Gansu province early on Monday, July 22nd, killing at least 75 persons as of the latest news information. The quake appears to have been greater than Magnitude 6 and has left many more injured in this semi-rural location. More strong earthquakes may occur over the next 2 weeks, and China will continue to be a hot-spot to monitor during the next major risk periods of July 26-27 and July 31-August 1. Other seismically active areas should also take note of the upcoming dates.

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UPDATE No. 3...July 25, '13.

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN is born

  Early on Wednesday, the 4th tropical system of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season took shape quickly, blossoming from a strong tropical wave to a 50 mph storm in only a few hours. This is the storm that was advertised about a week ago by the computer models and now current forecasts take the storm in the general direction of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands come Monday-Tuesday timeframe. After then things remain very unclear. The timing will put the storm awfully close to the main risk period of this month and the very beginning of August, and by then we would need to see if this system reaches hurricane status and if it takes dead aim on the Bahamas and even Florida/Southeast U.S. It is still too early to tell if such a thing would be the case, as this storm might weaken before it ever gets a chance to become stronger thanks to some dry air ahead of it in the present. Bottom line, we now have something tangible to watch amigos, let's hope Dorian doesn't become a problem!

Check out the projected path of this brand new storm below:

Let's continue to monitor this storm's progress as it nears the islands in the days ahead!