Beware 2013's August

Hello all!
      Here's what I've posted nearly a day prior in the Prophecies forums: August has just begun and seems like one that could get off to a fast start, starting with today...and keep on going through its end. Things look like they're about to change pace and character as we enter the 8th month of this year, and we may see an upsurge in natural events and natural disasters, lamentably, in several parts of the world. June and July were about average for natural disasters, and now this new month looks to be above-average in contrast; we may see some pretty big headlines if things do pan out the way they seem. Fasten your seat belts, because here go the August predictions:

August 1:
(Continued from July 31) Most Likely Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts, possibly as strong as Magnitude 8.0 with the risk for serious disaster. An outside chance exists that the event occurs early on August 2 due to world time zones. 2nd Likely Scenario: Significant Weather-related Disaster, likely due to Flash Floods and even Tornadoes. This event may be caused by a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon's landfall. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like New Zealand for example. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with extra attention on Southeast Asia. The U.S. and Canada is still the prime target for Severe Weather and Tornadoes during this time. Watch the Tropics closely, as well as any other world area experiencing bad weather by then. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is a hefty 35 percent, with the risk for the disaster turning out severe at a respectable 25 percent.

August 4:
Possible Scenario: Strong Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, with the Magnitude possibly registering between 6.5 and 7.0. 2nd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Flash Floods and probable Tornadoes. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like California for instance. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with an extra eye on Southeast Asia. Also, watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is about 15 percent.

August 7-11:
Most Possible Scenario: A tropical Storm or Hurricane/Typhoon may form and hit land during this time frame, with odds favoring an event in the West Pacific. 2nd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Floods likely along with possible isolated Tornadoes, probably causing significant impacts. 3rd Possible Scenario: Strong Earthquake, with possibly significant impacts, may occur during this time as well, primarily on August 7-8 and August 11. Such quake could near or reach magnitude 7.0. Main Areas to Watch: Watch North America, the Caribbean, Asia and Europe...with a wary eye on Southeast Asia, especially around Taiwan and the Philippines, when it comes to floods and tropical cyclones. The Atlantic/Caribbean or East/West Pacific may come alive with tropical activity and storms during this time as well. The Northern half of the U.S. and southern Canada may be prime targets for the Severe Weather and Tornadoes. Last but not least, monitor any other world area experiencing bad weather by then, and keep an eye on the world's earthquake zones, especially those places seeing recent earthquake activity, such as China. Significant Risk: The risk for natural disaster during this time is about 20 percent, with the chance for the disaster becoming severe attaining 10 percent.

August 16-20:
Most Likely Scenario: Hurricane or Typhoon, possibly of major intensity, develops and takes aim at land regions, possibly causing severe impacts. Due to the time of year, the odds favor a hit in the Western Pacific in the vicinity of East and Southeast Asia more than on the Atlantic side. 2nd Likely Scenario: Powerful Earthquake with possibly severe impacts might also strike, especially on August 16 and August 19-20, and possibly be severely damaging. The quake, should it occur, could reach Magnitude 7.5 or even higher up to the 8.0. 3rd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Flash Flooding a strong possibility; this weather event or disaster might also be the result of a tropical storm system. Isolated Tornadoes could also result from such a weather event. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with again...extra attention on Southeast Asia, as well as the Caribbean Islands for tropical systems. The U.S. and Canada is still a prime target for Severe Weather and isolated Tornadoes during this time, while Western Europe becomes a hot-spot for flooding events in this month. Watch the Tropics closely, as well as any other world area experiencing bad weather by then. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Japan for example. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this five-day period is a substantial 30 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe being about 20 percent.

August 22:
Possible Scenario: Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts, with the Magnitude probably being somewhere between 6.0 and 6.5. 2nd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Flash Floods, landslides and probable Tornadoes, possibly brought on by the previous August 16-20 period's tropical storm or typhoon. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, such as the Middle East for example. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with an extra eye on Southeast Asia and the Caribbean for tropical systems. Also, watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is 10 percent.

August 25-29:
Most Likely Scenario: Hurricane or Typhoon, possibly of major intensity, forms and makes landfall, possibly creating severe impacts. This time around, the Atlantic should be watched just as closely as the Western Pacific, since both regions are equally likely to bring forth a big hurricane. These are the same exact dates that played a big role with Hurricane Katrina back in 2005, and seeing the same dates in a similar setup this time around, gives strong motive for watching the tropics very closely by then. 2nd Likely Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts might strike as well, especially on August 25 and August 28-29, and possibly be near Magnitude 7.5 or even 8.0. 3rd Possible Scenario: Severe Weather with Flash Flooding and isolated Tornadoes remains a good bet as well; this weather event or disaster might also be the result of the tropical storm system mentioned in Scenario number 1. Main Areas to Watch: For the Hurricane and Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with again...extra attention on Southeast Asia, as well as the Caribbean Islands for tropical systems. The U.S. is still a prime target for Severe Weather and isolated Tornadoes during this time, especially if a hurricane makes it to the Gulf Coast or East Coast. Western Europe is a place to monitor for plain severe weather and flooding events during this time. Watch the Tropics closely, as well as any other world area experiencing bad weather by then. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Indonesia for example. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this five-day period is a respectable 30 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe being 20 percent.

The Month at a Glance:

        August looks like the month that could really begin cranking the next wave of natural disasters this year, and serve as the opening act to what may be a very busy last third of 2013 nature-wise. This year hasn't been as harsh as other recent years, but this has the possibility of changing as we head into August. August 2013 will likely end up being one of the year's busiest months for natural disasters, and may see 2 to even 3 natural disasters of which 1 to 2 could prove major. One of these disasters will likely be a major Hurricane or Typhoon event, and the other possibly severe disaster may be the result of a nasty Earthquake. Flooding events are also something to keep an eye out for during this particular month. The risk dates are evenly distributed in this month, so any part of August is fair game for potentially bringing a significant natural disaster. Things could go bonkers pretty quick this month, so my best advice is to keep a close eye on the tropics for quickly-forming storms and hurricanes/typhoons, and to be on watch if you live in earthquake zones during this month too. Hopefully luck is on our side, and we don't see the month turn out as bad as it can potentially be. Best wishes to all, and make August 2013 a safe and happy month no matter what mother Nature brings our way!

That's my take on Aug. '13.
Updates will be posted, possibly often, as necessary!

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UPDATE #1.    8/7/13 at 2:30 AM

Fortunately we lucked out last August 1st with no significant natural disasters of any kind, and the 4th was tame as well for the most part. The upcoming period of August 7-11 could bring a strong and perhaps damaging earthquake and I feel that an Earthquake Watch should be sounded.

EARTHQUAKE WATCH...Possibly M 6.5-7.5 during August 7-11, more inclined to August 7-8 and August 11. Monitor the areas of the world shaded below the closest during this time:

While all earthquake risk zones should be watched during the coming dates, the areas enclosed by the blue and green lines above would be the most propense for quakes during this period...based on current EQ activity over the last few weeks. Areas in BLUE have a low risk for a strong earthquake (M 6.0+) during this time window, and areas in GREEN have a medium risk for a strong earthquake during this same time window (8/7 thru 8/11).

On another note, the tropics are fairly quiet with the exception of the Central Pacific, where tropical cyclone activity has been high over the last few days with hurricanes Henriette and Gil...both of which pose no threat to Hawaii at this time. Should anything pop up in the tropics, I'll post more updates on those future storms. Take care y'all!

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UPDATE #2.   8/11/13  9:19 PM

POWERFUL TYPHOON STRIKING THE PHILIPPINES 
Typhoon Utor is currently battering the northern half of the Philippines, the Luzon region, as a much stronger storm than first anticipated a few days ago. What looked like a weak storm a few days ago with little in the way of news-making effects, has blown into a major typhoon in just a day surprisingly. This area has and is seeing destructive winds above 100 mph and very dangerous flooding rain. This area should be monitored closely!

Typhoon Utor Landfall 8/11/13

VOLCANO ERUPTION CLAIMS 6 LIVES IN INDONESIA

As if the Typhoon weren't enough, a volcanic eruption in eastern Indonesia has killed 6 on August 10th. Apparently the victims failed to heed evacuation orders in the village affected, and hot lava flowed right into their home while sleeping. This is one of the first lava-related fatalities from a volcano in a long time.

Volcano's explosion in Indonesia on 8/10/13

Meanwhile Floods have been impacting the U.S. and Sudan over the last few days, proving quite destructive and deadly. It has been a busy week in the Earth Changes thus far, and I believe we're seeing only the beginning of what will be a very active month for natural disasters.  

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UPDATE #3...8/15/13...early morning.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC UNDER CLOSE WATCH FOR UPCOMING RISK DATES


GULF COAST FLOOD THREAT FOR 8/16 - 8/20

The above map shows the area which may get loads of rain from a developing tropical system in the Western Caribbean over the next few days. A tropical disturbance is currently forming as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. Whether this system becomes named or not, it will unleash loads of rain over the Southern U.S. and possibly lead to a Severe Flooding Disaster in parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. during a risk date period ripe for long-duration events such as tropical storms and floods. If you are in this area, stay tuned to local weather news media for up-to-the-minute info. Avoid driving if heavy rains fall for prolonged periods of time. 

NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM TO WATCH IN EASTERN ATLANTIC...A POTENTIAL DANGER COME AUGUST 25 - 29.

The 5th Tropical Depression of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has just formed, and could strengthen further into Tropical Storm Erin or Fernand (Name depending on the other Gulf of Mexico system's progress). This storm is far from land areas and we have plenty of time to watch it as it heads westward over the next week...but it could become an important player during the August 25 - 29 natural disaster risk period, which is a High Risk period. It may be too early to say this will have any effects on land, but it warrants attention due to its timeliness, because it would be near land areas around AUGUST 25 if it continues moving west-northwest at its current speed. Not out of the question that this could become the season's first HURRICANE.

EARTHQUAKE WATCH for 8/16 - 8/20...PRIMARILY AUGUST 16, AUGUST 19 - 20.

Shifting gears now, the upcoming risk period of August 16 - 20 also brings forth the chance for a destructive earthquake, possibly near or slightly over Magnitude 7.0. Just like in the previous update, The map below shows the possible risk areas, with regions enclosed in BLUE having a Low Risk for a strong earthquake (M 6.0+), areas enclosed in GREEN having a Medium Risk for the same kind of strong earthquake, and areas enclosed in ORANGE having a Significant Risk for this same kind of quake. This map is for the 8/16 - 8/20 Period: 

The Earth may continue behaving in a busy manner over the next few weeks, caution is advised if you are in any of these risk zones shown above, and any earthquake risk areas for that matter. 

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UPDATE #4...8-23-13...Late Night.

ATLANTIC LUCKY, WESTERN PACIFIC NOT SO LUCKY.

THE GOOD NEWS: Tropical Storm Erin from last week failed to maintain itself over the Central Tropical Atlantic and dissipated as it headed westward a few days ago, diminishing the chance for a hurricane event along the Caribbean Islands and Eastern North America for the August 25 - 29 dates of notice. Not much is presently occurring in this region, and nothing is expected to negatively affect land over the next few days aside from typical Summer storms and tropical waves in the Tropics. Land areas along the Atlantic may be in the clear from natural disasters in this upcoming risk period (8/25 - 8/29), including from tropical storms and hurricanes. A tropical storm may still form during this upcoming period, but will most likely be out at sea and not really bother anyone in the short term. 

THE BAD NEWS: Asia, in particular China and the Philippines, have suffered severe flooding over the last several days, actually spanning the last disaster risk period (8/16-8/20), where a devastating flash flood took nearly 100 lives in China on August 20th, and another severe flooding event hit the Philippines between Aug. 18 and 20, where nearly 40 inches of rain fell, flooding entire villages and also claiming several lives unfortunately. Both were an indirect effect from tropical cyclone activity ongoing during that time. The China event is considered the 4th deadliest natural disaster of the year by some sources, including wunderground.com, and is only the latest in a series of flash flood disasters that have plagued the area since early July. The coming risk period of Aug. 25-29 will have to be watched rather closely for more of these types of flood disasters as well, especially in this same general world region. 

EARTHQUAKES: Something to Watch Out For During August 25 - 29.

With relatively calm conditions in most of the world's tropical areas, and nothing major expected in the way of tropical storms or hurricanes in the upcoming dates, Earthquake events may become more likely to happen during this time, especially on August 25 and August 28 - 29. These dates have the capability of bringing an earthquake over the Magnitude of 6.5...and perhaps surpassing Magnitude 7.0...that creates significant impacts. In other words, an earthquake during this time could prove both strong and destructive, so be on watch then if you or your loved ones are in a seismic zone. In the space below you can see which world areas I feel may be at most risk for such a quake during 8/25 - 8/29 in the map below.

Remember that areas enclosed in: Blue are in a Low Risk of seeing a strong earthquake over Magnitude 6.0, Green are in a Medium Risk of seeing the same kind of EQ, and areas in Orange are in Significant Risk of seeing the same 6.0+ shaker. Risk values are relative to the risk of other unshaded seismic regions, simply meaning that even areas that aren't colored still have a "low risk" for an event, just maybe not as notable as the actual areas colored in blue.

That's it for now, I'll be back with more stuff should more natural phenomena come up. Have a safe weekend everyone!