We round out yet another month in our lives, and begin to enter a fresh new one...September. It is the early morning hours of September 1st over here in Florida, and I've finally put together the new predictions for September, concerning any possible natural phenomena, and especially natural disasters, that may be "in the cards" for certain days of this month. Last month was somewhat busy with several flooding events around the globe, and a few strong earthquakes. Luckily however, these events didn't reach earth-shattering levels or leave lasting wounds like other disasters of the past, such as Hurricane Katrina or 2004's Tsunami for instance. September 2013 has its noteworthy dates which deserve attention, and could favor the most common natural disaster typically seen in this month (hurricanes). It's a month that seems about as strong as August did, and likely threats may come from tropical weather systems and earthquakes. However, with a little luck, we might still see a month that remains within the norm and brings about-average activity for natural disasters around the globe rather than above-normal activity. Then again, the word of caution is that this month still has some strong risk periods, and we would still have to be on watch just to be on the safe side...after all, September really is the climatological peak of hurricane season in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. To examine this month with better details, here follow September 2013's predictions:
September 1:
One Possible Scenario: An Earthquake with possibly moderate impacts may shake things up a bit later today, possibly being in the Magnitude 6.0 to 6.5 range. 2nd Possible Scenario: A Weather-related Disaster, likely in the form of Flash Flooding, Severe Weather, and even Landslides caused by heavy rain. This date isn't particularly dangerous, but still deserves some mention as really any region experiencing nasty weather should be on guard for one of these weather-related side effects. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like China for example. For the Severe Weather: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with extra attention on Southeast Asia. The U.S. and Canada could also be a target for Severe Weather and Tornadoes during this time, especially in the northern plains of the U.S. To be safe, keep an eye on any other world area experiencing bad weather as today progresses. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 10 percent.
September 6-10:
Most Likely Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly significant to severe impacts, with the Magnitude possibly registering between 7.0 and 7.5, likeliest to strike on September 6 or in second place, September 9-10. 2nd Likely Scenario: Strong Typhoon or Hurricane, with possible impacts to land areas. This scenario does not look too likely as of this point since reliable weather forecasts aren't calling for any serious activity over the next 2 weeks, but in September things can change very quickly in the Tropics...and should something form by or during this period, this scenario could become the outcome. 3rd Possible Scenario: Severe Flooding and landslides caused by heavy rain are other things to watch for during this period. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like New Zealand for example. For the Hurricane or Typhoon: Watch the Western Pacific, as well as the Central and Eastern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the general vicinity of the Lesser Antilles islands. Keep a wary eye on any other world regions experiencing bad weather by then, as floods and landslides remain a good possibility as well, particularly in East and Southeast Asia. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during these dates is around 30 percent, with a Severe Disaster probability of 20 percent.
September 15-19:
Most Likely Scenario: Strong Typhoon or Hurricane, with possibly significant to severe impacts to land areas which it hits. These dates are also a real doozy, and perhaps the most dangerously set up for a major natural disaster resulting from a tropical cyclone. This happens to be right at the peak of Hurricane Season in both Pacific and Atlantic, so caution is advised should a named storm develop by then and set its sights on a particular region. 2nd Likely Scenario: Severe Weather outside tropical storms and hurricanes is also possible, with the main threats perhaps being Floods and Landslides. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out either, especially if the severe weather events are caused by cold fronts. 3rd Possible Scenario: A Powerful Earthquake, with possibly significant impacts, can also occur during this time, primarily on September 15 and even a bit more on September 18-19. Such a quake could reach or even surpass magnitude 7.0, and prove quite destructive. Main Areas to Watch: For the Severe Weather, including Hurricanes and Typhoons: Watch the Western Pacific, as well as the Central and Eastern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the general vicinity of the Lesser Antilles islands. Watch North America, the Caribbean, Asia and Europe for potentially strong tropical cyclones...with a wary eye on Southeast Asia, especially around Taiwan and the Philippines, when it comes to floods and landslides in addition to tropical storms and typhoons. The Atlantic/Caribbean and Eastern North Pacific may become very alive with hurricanes during this time. The Northern half of the U.S. may be a prime target for Severe Weather and even a few Tornadoes, especially if a strong early-season cold fron makes its way south from Canada. Aside from areas already mentiones, monitor any other world area experiencing bad weather by then just to be on the cautious side. For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, such as in and around Alaska for example. High Risk: The risk for natural disaster during this time is a strong 30 percent, with the chance for the disaster becoming severe being 20 percent.
September 24:
Most Likely Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly significant to severe impacts, with the Magnitude possibly registering between 7.0 and 8.0 on this really earthquake-prone date. Out of all the dates this month, September 24th is the most risky for significant earthquake disasters, and powerful earthquakes too. There is a slight chance that the earthquake could occur just outside this date, meaning late on September 23 or early on September 25...where the main central focus date is 9/24. 2nd Likely Scenario: Another type of sudden natural disaster could occur on this day, most likely in the form of a Landslide, Flash Flood or even Volcanic Eruption. 3rd Possible Scenario: Being September, I can't dismiss the chance for a quick-hitting typhoon or hurricane to make headlines on this date. Should a tropical cyclone exist prior to this date and be heading in the general direction of land, the risk for this event will go up significantly. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the "Pacific Ring of Fire" and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Eastern Asia for example. For the other possible events: Watch the Western Pacific, as well as the Central and Eastern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the general vicinity of the Lesser Antilles islands for possible tropical cyclone action. Keep a wary eye on any other world regions experiencing bad weather by then, as floods and landslides remain a good possibility as well, particularly in East and Southeast Asia. This same area is also a hot spot for volcano activity. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster on this date is a substantial 30 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe being about 20 percent.
September 27-28:
One Possible Scenario: Tropical Storm or Severe Weather event, possibly resulting from tropical cyclone activity in general. A weak to moderate hurricane/typhoon could make its effects felt during this 2-day period, possibly resulting in moderate impacts. 2nd Possible Scenario: Flash Floods, Mudslides and probable Tornadoes could also be in store for this time frame. Main Areas to Watch: Watch North America, Asia and Europe...with an extra eye on Southeast Asia and the Caribbean for tropical systems. Also, watch any other world regions experiencing bad weather then. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 15 percent.
September 30:
Most Probable Scenario: A Powerful Earthquake seems like a good bet for this date, possibly being in the Magnitude 7.0 range with significant impacts. Aside from September 24, this date is the second-most earthquake-prone date of the month...and deserves its own "earthquake watch". 2nd Probable Scenario: Another type of sudden natural disaster could occur on this day, possibly in the form of a Landslide, Flash Flood or even Volcanic Eruption. 3rd Possible Scenario: Just like in the case of September 24, I can't rule out the chance for a quick-hitting typhoon or hurricane to make headlines on this day. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch the world's earthquake-prone regions, primarily along the Ring of Fire and any areas recently experiencing earthquake activity, like Mexico for example. For the other probabilities: Watch North America, Asia and Europe with again...extra attention on Southeast Asia, as well as the Caribbean Islands for tropical systems. The U.S. is still a target area for Severe Weather in early Fall, and isolated Tornadoes could still occur during this time. Asia is also a hot spot for volcanic activity, especially in Indonesia. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster on Sep. 30th 2013 is 20 percent, with the risk for the disaster becoming severe at 10 percent.
The Month at a Glance:
While all seems generally quiet in the tropics around the world in the last few days, the most risky month for hurricane activity is just beginning. Despite current weather forecast models showing little activity for the coming month, I believe things will change dramatically over the coming weeks. With the risk periods looking the way they look this September, I have a feeling that the quiet stretch may give way to a very busy time with regards to hurricanes and typhoons, and that we will see a powerful storm threaten land later this month. Hopefully, such a monster that develops will miss land areas altogether! September 2013 is a very Hurricane and Typhoon prone month, and either the Western & Eastern Pacific or the Atlantic could become very active very soon. Major Earthquakes are also a possibility this month, so in general we may be looking at 2 to 3 Natural Disasters this September...in which 1 is caused by a Strong Earthquake, 1 is caused by a Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane or Typhoon), and 1 extra natural disaster may be a result of Severe Weather, including things like Flash Floods and Landslides. One of these three natural disasters could prove to be severe. September 2013 will continue a relatively active stretch for Earth that could be in place through year's end.
Updates will be posted, possibly often, whenever necessary!
-Nutstradamus ;)
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UPDATE #1...Sept. 4th 2013 @ 11:41 PM
Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms in Caribbean...Poses Immediate Threats to Puerto Rico, Later Threats to Hispaniola and Southeast Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle just developed right below Puerto Rico earlier this evening and is poised to give the island nation tons of rain over the next few days...with potential effects to Hispaniola and the far Southeastern Bahamas over the next few days, extending well into the first part of the September 6-10 window. I feel the main threats with this system at the present moment will be dangerous heavy rains and flash flooding/ Mudslide threats across these islands, Puerto Rico in particular. Caution is advised for anyone residing in this region or traveling here over the next few days, watch this storm closely!
Brand New Tropical Storm Gabrielle Close to Midnight on Sept. 5th
Tropical Storm Gabrielle's Forecast Path (Courtesy of The Weather Channel)
As you may already know, September 6th through the 10th favors both Hurricane or Tropical Storm related disasters as well as Flooding events. This could be the manifestation of the upcoming period, and this is a reason for concern IMO. Heavy Flooding rains could set up over land areas in this region well after the storm moves north out to sea, especially if the storm grows in size and strengthens, where it could set up a "tail" of storms over land areas...helping to feed the storm as it moves away...leading to possibly severe flooding. Please stay tuned to local weather TV if you or loved ones are in the region.
Aside from this, a 6.5 Magnitude Earthquake shook Indonesia on September 1st, soon followed by another 6.5 Quake in Japan's south. Luckily neither event proved damaging or deadly! We should also be on watch for Quakes during the upcoming period just in case.
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UPDATE #2 on September 15th Early AM
DOUBLE TROUBLE For MEXICO Via 2 HURRICANES
9/15 - 9/19
Mexico is finding itself in an unusual weather situation, and one which could potentially prove devastating starting later today (Sunday Sep. 15th) and into the early week during the remainder of the current risk period window. As if right on schedule, a strengthening hurricane called Ingrid is closing in on Mexico's East Gulf Coast with potentially dangerous strength. The category 1 storm might have a shot at becoming a Cat 2 perhaps before barreling inland on Monday the 16th if it doesn't weaken slightly due to its proximity to land right now. Either way, the storm's main impact will occur once the storm is inland. Once inland it should head west straight for the mountainous regions, possibly causing life threatening flooding and landslides! To make matters even worse, a second tropical system, Tropical Storm Manuel, is also poised to crash ashore Mexico's Pacific West Coast later today just hours before Ingrid, and might also strengthen into a low-end hurricane. This storm will only add to the moisture delivered by Ingrid, and the two storms combined could set the stage for an unusually severe flooding disaster across Mexico's mountainous North-Central interior in the coming 4 days!
Notice the two storms currently surrounding central Mexico below.
These dates (Sep 15-19) are ripe for disaster, seeing something like this gets me very concerned. All interests in this region of Mexico should be on high alert.
EARTHQUAKE WATCH 9/15 - 9/19...Primarily Sept. 15 and Sept. 18-19.
Earthquakes are still a significant concern during this date, as well as the period where another risk peak exists during the 18th and 19th. There is a good chance that we could see a Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquake between now and Thursday the 19th...and any such quake could prove damaging and even disastrous during a high risk period like this. The map below shows the areas I feel are most at risk for getting the quake: Once again, the areas shaded are at notable risk for a Strong Earthquake (Considered to be Magnitude 6.0+) that could prove damaging. Areas enclosed in Blue are at a notable, but Low risk, of seeing this sort of Earthquake. Areas enclosed in Green are at a Moderate risk For getting this same sort of strong quake. Areas in Orange are at Significant Risk for the same 6.0+ shaker. Areas not shown still have some sort of risk, but is much smaller than the colored areas and may be called "very low risk". This is only based on my observation of recent moderate to strong earthquake activity...as other stronger quakes tend to strike around areas currently experiencing significant recent EQ activity. See the Quake Risk Map below:
Valid from 9/15 - 9/19, 2013.
MAJOR EARTHQUAKE WATCH FOR SEPTEMBER 24TH - EARLY 25TH.
Beware all seismic areas recently experiencing EQ activity over the last few weeks, tomorrow's date is a pretty potent one for a powerful earthquake to happen. The magnitude of this possible quake may surpass 7.0 and even near the 8.0, or cause effects similar to earthquakes of this strength even if it is in the M 6.0 to 6.5 range. This type of risk date (9/24/13) is not common, and associated risks for disaster are fairly notable. The map below shows where I feel extra attention may be needed:
9-24-2013
Watch the Earth closely tomorrow just to be on the safe side!
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UPDATE #4...SEPTEMBER 29th @ 11:05 AM
DEVASTATING M-7.8 EARTHQUAKE ROCKED PAKISTAN ON 9/24
At least 515 people have died in the terrible earthquake that ravaged southern Pakistan's Baluchistan province, leveling most mud brick homes near the epicenter and leaving over 100,000 homeless. The earthquake was massive, at 7.8 magnitude, and was strong enough to even create an island offshore the area where the quake struck. More powerful tremors are likely in this region over the coming months.
EARTHQUAKE WATCH
NEW EARTHQUAKE RISK MAP FOR SEPTEMBER 30
Continue close watch from Pakistan southeast towards Indonesia for highest risk of a damaging Magnitude 6.0+. This date (Sep. 30) is also quite strong, so something larger in the 7.0+ range is a real possibility!
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UPDATE #2 on September 15th Early AM
DOUBLE TROUBLE For MEXICO Via 2 HURRICANES
9/15 - 9/19
Mexico is finding itself in an unusual weather situation, and one which could potentially prove devastating starting later today (Sunday Sep. 15th) and into the early week during the remainder of the current risk period window. As if right on schedule, a strengthening hurricane called Ingrid is closing in on Mexico's East Gulf Coast with potentially dangerous strength. The category 1 storm might have a shot at becoming a Cat 2 perhaps before barreling inland on Monday the 16th if it doesn't weaken slightly due to its proximity to land right now. Either way, the storm's main impact will occur once the storm is inland. Once inland it should head west straight for the mountainous regions, possibly causing life threatening flooding and landslides! To make matters even worse, a second tropical system, Tropical Storm Manuel, is also poised to crash ashore Mexico's Pacific West Coast later today just hours before Ingrid, and might also strengthen into a low-end hurricane. This storm will only add to the moisture delivered by Ingrid, and the two storms combined could set the stage for an unusually severe flooding disaster across Mexico's mountainous North-Central interior in the coming 4 days!
Notice the two storms currently surrounding central Mexico below.
These dates (Sep 15-19) are ripe for disaster, seeing something like this gets me very concerned. All interests in this region of Mexico should be on high alert.
EARTHQUAKE WATCH 9/15 - 9/19...Primarily Sept. 15 and Sept. 18-19.
Earthquakes are still a significant concern during this date, as well as the period where another risk peak exists during the 18th and 19th. There is a good chance that we could see a Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquake between now and Thursday the 19th...and any such quake could prove damaging and even disastrous during a high risk period like this. The map below shows the areas I feel are most at risk for getting the quake: Once again, the areas shaded are at notable risk for a Strong Earthquake (Considered to be Magnitude 6.0+) that could prove damaging. Areas enclosed in Blue are at a notable, but Low risk, of seeing this sort of Earthquake. Areas enclosed in Green are at a Moderate risk For getting this same sort of strong quake. Areas in Orange are at Significant Risk for the same 6.0+ shaker. Areas not shown still have some sort of risk, but is much smaller than the colored areas and may be called "very low risk". This is only based on my observation of recent moderate to strong earthquake activity...as other stronger quakes tend to strike around areas currently experiencing significant recent EQ activity. See the Quake Risk Map below:
Valid from 9/15 - 9/19, 2013.
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UPDATE #3....SEP. 23 @ 11:25 pm
MAJOR EARTHQUAKE WATCH FOR SEPTEMBER 24TH - EARLY 25TH.
Beware all seismic areas recently experiencing EQ activity over the last few weeks, tomorrow's date is a pretty potent one for a powerful earthquake to happen. The magnitude of this possible quake may surpass 7.0 and even near the 8.0, or cause effects similar to earthquakes of this strength even if it is in the M 6.0 to 6.5 range. This type of risk date (9/24/13) is not common, and associated risks for disaster are fairly notable. The map below shows where I feel extra attention may be needed:
9-24-2013
Keep in mind the colored lines above show the places I believe would be most at risk, any region enclosed by the colored lines should be watched closely. While all earthquake zones have a certain risk, no matter how small and should be watched, the colored regions have more risk. Beginning with areas in BLUE having a Low Risk for a strong, possibly damaging Magnitude 6.0+ quake on this date. Areas in GREEN have a Medium Risk for this same M 6.0+ quake. Areas in ORANGE have a Significant Risk for this same type of powerful quake. With a risk date of this magnitude, I include areas in RED which have a High Risk for this same type of quake...and may easily experience a greater earthquake.
Watch the Earth closely tomorrow just to be on the safe side!
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UPDATE #4...SEPTEMBER 29th @ 11:05 AM
DEVASTATING M-7.8 EARTHQUAKE ROCKED PAKISTAN ON 9/24
EARTHQUAKE WATCH
NEW EARTHQUAKE RISK MAP FOR SEPTEMBER 30
Continue close watch from Pakistan southeast towards Indonesia for highest risk of a damaging Magnitude 6.0+. This date (Sep. 30) is also quite strong, so something larger in the 7.0+ range is a real possibility!
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